The Mexican economy will bounce over the next two years, with rates of 4.3% and 2.5% for 2021 and 2022, respectively, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report. These projections represent a significant improvement over last October’s calculation.
In October, the World Economic Outlook report estimated a 9% contraction by 2020 and growth of 3.5% by 2021. The new estimates accelerate recovery for the next two years. This IMF projection is closer to the Ministry of Finance’s previously considered optimistic estimates, which forecast a rebound of 4.6% for this year.
The best expectations also adds to the behavior of the northern neighbor. The United States, to which Mexico sends 80% of its exports, grew more than expected during the third quarter of last year, and, already under the baton of President Joe Biden and a Democratic-held Congress, is preparing for a robust new anti-discrimination package, an additional fiscal spending that the IMF sees with good eyes. “It will help raise economic activity among advanced economies with positive effects for trading partners,” the report reads.
The Government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador wanted to be optimistic. The president has repeated on several occasions that he expected a V-shaped uptick, a sinking followed by an equally fast rebound. “It’s going to be a V. Our adversaries were saying, ‘No, we’re going to fall and it’s going to be like L, we’re going to be in the background for a long time,’ he said on Sunday. You can see the little lights that indicate we’re going to get out of the tunnel.”
